What's Your Win Rate?

This is a classic question that seems to still get asked, over and over again. But why?

Bookies all over the world want to drive this narrative because it provides a false set of data that only serves them but not the individual!

Most people can easily identify with this theory, and therefore regard it as a key metric when building a betting strategy. Unfortunately this isn’t really a reliable statistic to base anything off.

A higher win rate is better, right?



Obviously a high win rate is good, we don’t question that. But it is important to understand this, and put it in the correct context. Data without context is useless!

So you want a 97.5% win rate?



This is quite easy to achieve believe it or not, but would we follow it? Absolutely not! Let’s explain:

The above image is a combined table of NHL (National Hockey League) scores.


As we can see 196 games ended in a 0-0 draw, a further 1,275 games ended 1-0. With a total of 59,799 games recorded, just 1,471 had a score of less than 1.5 goals. This means that just 2.5% of NHL games will statistically finish with less than 1.5 goals.

If you bet on more than 1.5 goals per game in the NHL, then you will (according to probability) have a win rate of around 97.5%.

Unfortunately the bookies already know this, and is why the odds on such a bet would be ridiculously low, possibly as low as 1.01, which means you will bet $100 to earn $1 profit.

So why doesn’t this work?


To really prove our point, let’s inflate our win rate to 98%. Now consider that you have an initial bankroll of just $100, you then bet consecutively on odds of 1.01. Meaning with each bet, you increase your bankroll by $1. You win your first 98 bets, but lose the last 2, giving a win rate of 98%, good right? Let’s look at the numbers:

Bet Number Bet Amount Bet Odds Win / Loss Total
1-98 $100 1.01 $101 $198
99-100 $100 1.01 $100 $200
As you win your first 98 bets, you take your $1 profit, and leave it on the side, before reinvesting $100 in a new bet, with the same odds. This will lead you to a high of $198. Unfortunately those 2 bets, or 2% will actually mean that in the end, you will have a NET LOSS of $2.

Even with a win rate of 99% (over time) you will have a NET LOSS of 1% of your bankroll. 

So should betting success be measured in win rate?

 

Absolutely not!


The only metric that is valuable to you, is profit over time! Win rate is completely irrelevant to long term success, but it is often used as a way for scam betting prediction offers to lure in new gamblers! Our brains don’t normally compute statistics, which is why some new gamblers serve as easy pickings for scam handicappers. Don’t be another victim, do your research!