Betting Style Comparison
What Betting Style Is Best?
Take a look at 2 very common betting styles to see the theory, and mathematics behind which one is a clear winner!
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In this post we take a look at 2 different strategies and betting styles to analyze how they perform in the long run. 

When betting, it’s better to have a long term plan, rather than a simple bet-to-bet system which is prone to impulse buying and other human factors.

For this explanation, we take a look at 2 gamblers, who choose their bets based on risk.

Gambler Number 1

Our first gambler bets on strong favorites, with odds usually around the 1.35 or -300 mark.

After 10 bets, this gambler has won an impressive 7 bets and only lost 3. Giving a win rate of 70% which is great, right? This would be advertised as a huge win and initially come across as an impressive statistic!

On closer inspection however, this strategy is deeply flawed:

With the same 1 unit bets, this gambler would have lost $3 on 3 losing wagers (1 x 3 = $3). The result is a NET LOSS of $0.55 units for every 10 wagers made using this strategy.

Despite having a huge success rate with bets, this gambler will actually lose more than half a unit, for every 10 bets.

Gambler Number 2

Our second gambler makes riskier bets on underdogs, and parlays. This gambler usually gets odds around 2.20 or +110.

It’s very unlikely this gambler will have a win rate even close to the first gambler, but this gambler is playing a long term strategy.

After making 10 bets, this gambler wins just 5 bets, giving a win rate of 50%. Which on the surface, seems like a worse situation when comparing this to gambler number 1. 

If we use the same one-unit bets, this gambler would have lost $5 (1 x 5 = $5) on their 5 losing wagers. Due to the earnings on winning bets however, this gambler would actually be earning a NET PROFIT of $0.50 units for every 10 bets!

Summary

As seen above, the only metric that should be used for long term earnings, bankroll growth and success, should be profits. A high win rate, although it may seem like a pathway to success, does not guarantee winning in the long run. 

We explain betting win rates and how they’re flawed in another post specifically covering this topic.